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A Look into My Crystal Ball (Oscars 2007)
Best Picture
After Babel received the gold at the Globes, it is the odds-on favorite for the Oscar. However, the votes may sway to The Departed; it is jam-packed with violent grit, stellar performances, and masterful direction. The Departed is by far the finest Scorsese picture since Goodfellas (which was nominated for the same honor in 1991).
Don’t be shocked if The Queen storms the stage to collect the award; it is an upright motion-picture that might have enough muster to win over those who cast the ballots. Letters loses any potential steam with the possession of subtitles, while Little Miss Sunshine gained more traction than warranted since its theatrical release. But, its buildup may play a factor. While Sunshine is a good and cute film, it is no Best Picture.
The one film that is unmistakably absent is Children of Men. For reasons unknown, voters failed to notice the picture’s allegorical brilliance. Oh yeah, and Dreamgirls is a bigger better film than half of the nominees. At the end of the day, look for the heavily-themed Babel to win big, The Departed to rightfully take the cake, or Sunshine to shock viewers with an unjustified upset.
Probable Upset: Babel
Best Director
In this category, Scorsese is an absolute lock. Although he was robbed in prior years, this year, Scorsese has hit the ball out of the park—with no hope of an outfielder reaching over the fence to pull his hopes back into play.
Eastwood recently took home the golden guy for Million Dollar Baby—not that this year’s direction doesn’t warrant another win. Yet, with a nomination, the Academy has already given Eastwood enough credit. With his orchestration of Mirren, Frears earns his nomination, and with his fine documentary style of United 93, Greengrass is the dark horse. All-in-all, it is Iñárritu who holds the most promising chance to deprive the master Martin yet again; on the other hand, be prepared for the Mafia Don to leave satisfied and finally fulfilled. Probable Upset: Alejandro González Iñárritu
Leo DiCaprio deserves to take home this statue. Conversely, this honor should stem from a film in which he was not nominated (The Departed). Despite DiCaprio’s snub, Will Smith shines like never before (even in comparison to Ali), although some attribute his stellar acting to the presence of his son in the supporting role. Gosling’s turn is commendable, but not as widespread and well-known as the other options. In his old age, Peter O’Toole is by far the potential upset, but Whitaker is heavily favored. In general, it will take more than sentiment and old age for someone to upset the Last King they call Forest. Probable Academy Pick: Forest Whitaker Probable Upset: Peter O’Toole
Two words: Helen Mirren. There might as well be one nominee. No one else stands a bloody chance or even a mention against this British star. Probable Upset: Non-existent
Each year, the definition of “supporting” becomes fuzzier. The supporting role is obvious not the lead, but at the same time, it is more than a bit player.
Alan Arkin and Mark Wahlberg had too tiny of roles to be termed significant. Yes, they both stole the scenes in which they inhabited, but Arkin doesn’t make it half-way through the film and Wahlberg almost supports Jack Nicholson, Martin Sheen, Alec Baldwin, and Ray Winstone as opposed to the leads in Matt Damon and Leo DiCaprio.
Speaking of The Departed, where on God’s green Earth is Jack Nicholson’s name. Not only should he be on this list of nominees, but he should win—hands down. Eddie Murphy may be the talk of the town favorite, but while his James Brown “impression” is good, it’s nothing new for Murphy. This same fire-put-into-song is viewable on his Delirious DVD. Could he really receive the award just weeks after a release like Norbit?
This situation reminds me of the nominations that Bill Murray and Jamie Foxx received. With Lost in Translation, Murray’s work was outstanding; it was the role of his life. Similarly, Jamie Foxx’s portrayal in Ray was a once-in-a-lifetime role. Murray lost to Penn (the year’s best) and Foxx won. So, you could say...in the case of Murphy, it’s 50-50. The favoritism is on his side, and he doesn’t have Nicholson to run against.
If there is a chance of an upset, it comes in the form of Jackie Earle Haley. Who wouldn’t vote for Kelly Leak from The Bad News Bears? Then again, the biggest upset of the night would be if justice was served and Jack Nicholson was announced as the “write-in” winner. Probable Upset: Jackie Earle Haley
Best Supporting Actress
Abigail Breslin is adorably wonderful, Cate Blanchett is consistently good, and both Rinko Kikuchi and Adrianna Barraza help make Babel the highlight that it is. Even so, when Hudson belts out “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going,” she inscribes her name on an Oscar. The only thing is that, maybe by arrogantly announced that she is now an American Idol turned star, she’ll turn voters away. Probable Academy Pick: Jennifer Hudson
Best Original Screenplay
The Best Original Screenplay category is probably the most competitive of 2007. With the indie-success Little Miss Sunshine, the beautifully scripted The Queen, and the disturbing enchantment of Pan’s Labyrinth, the playing field is tough. Then, tack on the Japanese war drama in Letters and the complexity of Babel. While Original Screenplay is not one of the “Big Five,” it is one of the most wide-open races. In the same fashion of Crash, look for Babel to slightly edge out The Queen and Little Miss Sunshine. Probable Upset: Little Miss Sunshine
This is a toss-up between The Departed and Children of Men. Borat is a joke. Notes on a Scandal and Little Children don’t have enough push to reach the stage. Children of Men already received the cold shoulder for a Best Picture nod, but maybe it will win here. The screenplay for The Departed is brilliantly adapted from Internal Affairs and twisted into a Boston crime caper. Prepare for Monahan to give an acceptance speech.
Animated Feature: Cars © 2007 Brandon Valentine |
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